The Rural Exodus and the Making of Modern Europe: Lessons from Sweden’s Transformation

Migration as the Hidden Driver of Modernization

The transformation of Europe from a largely agrarian society into an industrial powerhouse is often credited to advances in technology, education, and capital accumulation. However, the study by Thomas Baudin and Robert Stelter introduces an overlooked but essential catalyst: internal migration. Focusing on Sweden from 1760 to 1960, their research highlights how the ability of rural populations to relocate to urban centers was not simply a byproduct of modernization—it was a prerequisite for it. Despite higher child mortality and worse health conditions in early industrial cities, opportunities for wage labor, education, and long-term prosperity made migration worthwhile. Their model shows that Sweden’s economic and demographic transition—its so-called “take-off“—was driven largely by this rural exodus, which allowed urban populations to grow quickly enough to support industrial expansion and a rising demand for skilled labor.

When Moving Matters More Than Surviving

One of the study’s more provocative findings is that lowering migration costs had a more significant effect on development than reducing infant mortality. While declining mortality did improve population health over time, it was the freedom and feasibility of moving that truly unleashed economic potential. In simulations where migration became more expensive or impossible, Sweden’s demographic transition was delayed by up to a century. Fertility remained high, education remained low, and urban growth stagnated. Conversely, when the countryside became less egalitarian—due to events like the enclosure movements—many poorer rural families had strong incentives to leave. But the resulting urbanization was not an automatic success: it increased inequality and, without proper urban opportunities, could slow overall economic gains. Thus, the study illustrates that development requires more than just migration; it needs cities that can absorb and empower migrants economically and socially.

Lessons from Sweden for Today’s Developing World

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The insights from Sweden’s historical experience are not just academic—they are highly relevant for today’s developing nations. Many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia are urbanizing rapidly, but without the economic dynamism that characterized 19th- and 20th-century Europe. In part, this is because migration remains costly, infrastructure is weak, and urban labor markets are informal or underdeveloped. Baudin and Stelter’s work suggests that reducing the barriers to rural-urban migration, investing in urban education, and ensuring that cities offer real economic opportunities are critical steps for sparking sustained growth. Education alone is not enough—without migration, human capital may be trapped in low-productivity rural areas. Sweden’s path to prosperity was built on the movement of people as much as ideas. If modern economies want to replicate that success, they must treat mobility not as a side effect of development, but as a central policy goal.

The transformation of Europe from a largely agrarian society into an industrial powerhouse is often credited to advances in technology, education, and capital accumulation. However, the study by Thomas Baudin and Robert Stelter introduces an overlooked but essential catalyst: internal migration. Focusing on Sweden from 1760 to 1960, their research highlights how the ability of rural populations to relocate to urban centers was not simply a byproduct of modernization—it was a prerequisite for it. Despite higher child mortality and worse health conditions in early industrial cities, opportunities for wage labor, education, and long-term prosperity made migration worthwhile. Their model shows that Sweden’s economic and demographic transition—its so-called “take-off”—was driven largely by this rural exodus, which allowed urban populations to grow quickly enough to support industrial expansion and a rising demand for skilled labor.